The FBI Publishes A Yearly Count Of Reported Arson Offenses

Local Police Departments Send In Those Numbers Themselves

For Agencies Outside The Federal Government That Is Voluntary

So The National Count Depends On Who Sent Data In

Agencies Reported Far More Arson Partway Through The Last Decade

The Increase Started A Year Before The Pandemic Began

Twice In That Period The FBI Changed How It Collected Arson Data

Neither Of Those Had Anything To Do With How Many Fires Were Set

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The FBI Defines Arson As Intentionally Damaging Property By Fire

It Covers Attempts And Only Property Belonging To Someone Else

Police Agencies Across The United States Report Arson To The FBI

These Figures Are Cases Agencies Chose To Report Not A National Total

Reported Arson Totaled 43,863 Offenses In 2015

The Count Rose A Little To 45,707 In 2016

It Dropped To 42,991 The Next Year

In 2018 It Was 39,355 The Lowest Of The Decade

Agencies Then Reported 51,716 Offenses In 2019 Before The Pandemic

The 2020 Total Was 67,750 Offenses

In 2021 The Count Fell Back To 58,305

The 2022 Total Of 69,886 Was The Highest Of The Decade

It Was 69,295 In 2023

By 2024 It Had Fallen To 65,795

A Rate Per 100,000 People Exists Only For The Last Three Years

That Rate Fell Each Year 22.4 In 2022 21.9 In 2023 20.2 In 2024

The Raw Count Also Went Down Across Those Same Three Years

Over The Full Decade There Was No Steady Trend

The Count Rose Sharply In 2019 And Again In 2020

Counting Changed The Same Year As The First Of Those Rises

The FBI Receives These Numbers From Police Agencies Nationwide

Agencies Report Through One Of Two Different Systems

The Older One Is The Summary Reporting System Known As SRS

Its Newer Counterpart Is The National Incident Based Reporting System

NIBRS Is The Short Name For It

A Footnote In The FBI Arson Report Is Easy To Miss

SRS Arson Data Covers The Full 2015 To 2024 Span

NIBRS Arson Data Is Included Only From 2019 Onward

The 2019 Total Includes NIBRS Data That The Earlier Years Do Not

That Is The Same Year The Raw Count Rose From 39,355 To 51,716

Counting More Reports Is Not The Same As More Crime Happening

The FBI Set January 2021 As The Deadline For NIBRS Only Reporting

Numerous Agencies Including Some Large Ones Did Not Submit Data

That Year Only About 65 Percent Of The Population Was Covered

The FBI Said It Could Not Produce National Trends From That Data

Arson Reports That Year Came To 58,305

That Is Lower Than Both 2020 At 67,750 And 2022 At 69,886

The Two Changes Were About Reporting Rather Than Crime

This Dataset Cannot Support A Before And After Pandemic Comparison

Newsweek Reported An FBI Figure Comparing Two Half Years

It Showed Arson Up 19.2 Percent For January Through June 2020

The Comparison Used The Same Months Of 2019 As Its Baseline

Lockdowns Kept Many People Indoors Across Those Months

The George Floyd Protests Also Began During Those Months

Both Happened During The Six Months Being Compared

This Kind Of Comparison Cannot Separate Those Two Events

A Percentage Change On Its Own Does Not Show A Cause

The Ten Year Count Has Limits Of Its Own Too

Federal Agencies Are Required To Send Their Data To The FBI

Other Agencies Send Theirs Only If They Choose To

The Report Calls Its Arson Statistics Preliminary

It Says Those Figures Are Subject To Change

Every Figure Here Is An Offense Police Reported Not Every Fire Set

When Participation Changes A Rising Count Is Hard To Interpret

The Whole Dataset Covers The United States Only

A Missing Agency Lowers The Count Without Lowering The Crime

Fires That Were Never Reported Are Not In Any Of These Totals

This Data Was Not Collected To Test What The Pandemic Did To Arson